The Libertarian Republican in Florida

Hello! This is my first post at Liberty Republicans. While I consider myself a libertarian Democrat and blog most of the time at Freedom Democrats, I plan on popping up here from time to time to comment.

This Tuesday is the Florida primary, an event of far more importance for the Republican Party than the Democratic Party. With Fred Thompson out, the Republican field has settled down to five: John McCain, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Rudy Giuliani, and Ron Paul. Sadly, Florida may be the first time that Rudy Giuliani finishes ahead of Ron Paul. But the libertarian Republican should not be discouraged.

This is, after all, Rudy's "firewall" that was supposed to be his big win going into Super Tuesday. Remember when he was ahead in the polls here? Now, he'll be lucky to finish third ahead of Mike Huckabee.

My hope is that Ron Paul will stay in the race long enough, and Rudy Giuliani will drop out soon enough, for Paul to regain his lead over Giuliani in the popular vote and in the delegate count.

Libertarians in Florida, and across the nation, should also take pride in the drop in Huckabee's poll numbers. The nomination of Tax Hike Mike has been avoided, but a VP position is not yet out of the question. He'll keep in the race and probably sweep the South on Super Tuesday, a McCain-Huckabee ticket built on their need of joining forces to block Romney from the nomination is one possible scenario. But there are so many possible scenarios.

On Tuesday, Romney could beat out McCain, or vice versa. From the perspective of slowing down the Republican nomination and keeping McCain away from the White House, I will be cheering for a Romney victory. For my view of the real John McCain, check out my Freedom Democrats post.

Libertarian Republicans should be cheering on a Romney victory because it will continue to make the Republican primary competitive. A McCain win could solidify him as the nominee, potentially making Super Tuesday a total sweep for McCain. If Romney wins, the Republican establishment will not solidify behind one candidate. Ron Paul supporters saw what happened when the Republican establishment got behind one candidate (or non-candidate) in Louisiana. The only chance for Ron Paul to do well in caucus states like Idaho and Alaska and pick up delegates by winning Congressional districts in Georgia and California is for the establishment to stay divided.